May08, Unitedkingdom  2021 

Worldwide Corona Cases -151,553,676 *WearMask,KeepSanitizeYourHands*

Abstract Volume: 2 Issue: 2 ISSN:

A Brief Analysis on COVID 19.

Muhammad Abubakr*

*Corresponding Author: Muhammad Abubakr, Assistant Professor Orthopedic and Trauma, Pak International Medical College Peshawar, Peshawar Institute of Medical Sciences Head of Department Accident and Emergency service, Pakistan.


Received Date:  January 10, 2021

Publication Date: February 01, 2021

A Brief Analysis on COVID 19.

Karachi and Lahore population of 30000000 can we have more than 2-meter distancing for them can we have 2meter by 2 meters for 22 crores, Not possible in any Urban area except Islamabad. We will need the whole of Balochistan and Hamalyia Qurqram Hunkush for that Unfortunately in 70 people rural population 4 to 6 people reside in single room Hygiene is a must MASK for the disease is mandatory. Lockdown will not work as evident in Italy and the USA. It will cause the collapse of the health system of Europe and the US.

Active disease and antibodies are way too different things screening antibodies can be delayed to know the actual prevalence of the disease till the pandemic is over. As it will show all the recovered and disease as positive or antibodies should be considered as recovered.

Testing cases reporting only for COVID by real-time PCR for qualitative PCR Strictly abiding guidelines for testing PCR testing the point is we and European countries will count everything in COVID as they will have antibodies then have to be proven by negative PCR. In Europe and other states, it can prove to be a FALL OF NURSING HOMES.

Virology is very expensive and they need more money as there are lots and lots of research so they have to take their money back from public, there are a lot of them they discover then name them then it takes time to study their life cycle and morbidity and mortality it can be designed further and another's Brotherly free advice will be to change all your foreign currency accounts to Chinese currency As dollar and pound euro are will not have a role our close contacts negative swab are exposed high-risk family members Don't have any disease plus negative swab they are not being told about antibody levels They are 90%.

The ratio of infection below 10% and mortality below 2% If u do 100 000 tests today. There will be 8000 new patients in your chart It will double the total no of cases diagnosed so far, so it Rates Ratios, not a number game More testing More the No of cases Testing capacity is increasing day by day. The point is all family members and close contacts or unprotected contacts are being tested and even then, the ratio of positive testing 8% at a max of 9%. The remaining 90 % plus are exposed not diseased so should be considered recovered. Mortality rates are below 2% Not our disease now: Total disease mean since the time of testing.

Total disease divide by no test is the total rate of the disease since the start of testing that is about 10%.

Active patients in the total test are active disease rate that is 7%. So, the diagnosis is increasing and disease is decreasing: Because No test Capacity of testing is increasing, but it's will not be considered anything once the rate touch 5% it's not even a disease.

Its disease rate we start testing at 10 % of disease or in other words when 90% of the pandemic was over. Rora, they are playing with the diagnosis curve They will make it a real Timbuktu as they are portraying disease as pandemic so what they are up to disease and diagnosed diseases are way too much different things.

The US started testing at 30% and now they have about 10% of active disease you can see in this chart. 100%. 90% 80% down to 60% are ascending curves values for disease 50% or below 30% disease or anything lower will be a descending curve for disease. At 5% infection rates or below its total insignificant because of lack of any specific treatment from 5% to 1%, it may take 3yrs but can never mean any or any disease.

The disease is left may take a month in Malakand or any area because infection rate is 20% for most of the country its 10% and now active 7% At 5% it will have no significance just a simple test with no role as we don't have any specific treatment for it. Things for ArDs and pneumonia will remain the same triple antibiotics oxygenation steroid inhalers supportively ventilators and anticoagulants for DIC.

The first Diagnosis never means the first case number of cases diagnosed never means total no of cases So Herd immunity is when the majority of the population got infected or vaccinated False negatives swab Missed diagnosis late diagnosis are others.

All in the third world will be considered as infected if not they are recovered epidemic or pandemic will not wait for us. When it is there that's it, it was here in Pakistan in Nov December as we are in the lap of china and the armpit of Iran. It went unnoticed as most of the things happen in the third world and by the Grace of Almighty, we have reached the point of herd immunity here.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma season here kindly don't mix it you can have swab for them test them but will not be that fruit full. Dengue session is at the door followed by Malaria and Gastroenteritis we need to focus on our issues improve our sanitation drainage and waste disposal system if we have to move forward.

We wash hands 8 times at least 5 times was 3 meals after washroom 1-2 Our other social culture is not that weak. Old people were separated in old houses and they vulnerable to diseases We set to eat together this causing mucus exchanges and increases immunity.

In Pakistan 40 days, most of the herd tested close contact and unprotected contact. So, 88 to 90 % are recovered if they don't have any active disease even after positive contact This is called Herd immunity Pakistan.

Our close contacts negative swab is exposed high-risk family members Don't have any disease plus negative swab. They are not being told about antibody levels They are 90%. The ratio of infection below 10% and mortality below 2% If you do 100 000 tests today. There will be 8000 new patients in your chart It will double the total no of cases diagnosed so far. So, it Rates Ratios, not a number game More testing More the No of cases Testing capacity is increasing day by day. The point is all family members and close contacts or unprotected contacts are being tested and even then, the ratio of positive testing 8% at a max of 9%.

The remaining 90 % plus are exposed not diseased so should be considered recovered. Mortality rates are below 2%, not any concern or disease now. careful analysis by experts says, that Pakistan has about one Crore COVID infected currently, and 80% of them are asymptomatic 15 % will have mild disease and well recover 5% well need medication in 20 lakhs. They are mostly taking it home treatment or consider hospital risky so they are home-self treating at homes. It seems like Corona is going to disappear from Pak in the next 3 to 4 weeks...

The testing positive rate well drop further even in the hot spots now having 20% and decreasing disease. Disease and diagnosis are in opposing directions almost the tail of the curve Unfortunately, we are following the diagnosis curve and they can carry it as long as they want or as long as we have borrowed money, they want to spend it on COVID-19 and stop all developments and procedures do worry about anything else and have Corona as a top priority anyone in the UN will he aware that all UN-funded projects funds are diverted to a COVID pandemic that's a loan.

10th June 2020 Looting anarchy on the rise poetry increasing ALLAH de raham oke: Above is only data available by WHO Do your own analysis for any country by divide positive over total test get % it will give you total disease since the start of testing. Divide active by total test get %.

It will give you active disease at this time Divide deaths by the total No of positive get disease mortality simple. If the active rate is below 10% you can safely say an end of the pandemic. If it's less than 5% it's insignificant and doesn't mean anything than test. Anything from 5 to 10 % is just a disease.

Compare it to total disease will tell you the direction of the curve 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

More interesting will be to look at this daily updated chart from bottom 4 months of the so-called pandemic

The bottom 10 countries have less than 10 patients.

The bottom 50 countries have less than 100 patients.

The bottom 100 countries have less than 1000 cases.

More than 150 countries are just been included in early testing just to declare a pandemic it's too final 45 on the top is a priority or at the mark where more 10 000 cases in 4 months of a pandemic are reported. It can be considered as world geopolitical importance and so we are ranked on 19th Lockdowns are believed to affect the current geography of 35 countries.

 

Volume 2 Issue 2 February 2021                            

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